According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has updated their Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -0.5%, or -2.8% when considering gold imports and exports, marking the first expected contraction since 2022.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 GDP has been adjusted to -0.5% when excluding gold imports and exports. The inclusion of gold shifts the estimate from +3.9% to -2.8% within three months, indicating significant volatility in gold trading impacting GDP forecasts. This adjustment highlights the critical role of gold in economic performance metrics and could influence trading strategies focused on commodities and currency markets.